Shifting global trade dynamics are intensifying economic uncertainty and posing serious risks to growth, making it increasingly difficult for international banks to provide a clear medium-term outlook, HSBC Chairman Mark Tucker said on Friday, 2 May. Speaking at the bank’s Annual General Meeting, Tucker highlighted the growing threats to global economic stability stemming from ongoing trade tensions and policy unpredictability. 

He noted that HSBC, with its strong presence in Asia and strategic focus on international trade, is more exposed than some competitors to the impact of new US tariffs. These wide-ranging tariffs, part of a broader shift towards protectionist trade policies, risk disrupting global supply chains, increasing costs for businesses, and reducing demand for exports from key markets such as China and Southeast Asia.

Economists warn that such disruptions could ripple through both emerging and advanced economies, dampening growth prospects, weakening investor confidence and limiting cross-border capital flows. 

HSBC reaffirmed its commitment to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 and is currently reviewing its interim targets, following criticism for abandoning its 2030 operational goal. Activists condemned the bank’s continued support for fossil fuel projects, including the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline, and cautioned that political shifts, such as Trump’s pledge to roll back American climate commitments, could undermine global climate progress and influence corporate behaviour.

The implications of these developments stretch well beyond individual regions or sectors. Global trade remains a vital driver of economic growth, particularly for highly interconnected economies. Prolonged disruptions could result in financial market volatility, upward pressure on inflation and interest rates and slower employment growth. For multinational businesses and financial institutions alike, this environment demands agility, resilience and strategic foresight to navigate the uncertain road ahead.

Real GDP growth rate

Bottom Line

It’s unlikely that we have seen the last of large-scale tariff negotiations. President Trump’s previous term was marked by continuous tariff back-and-forth talks and much the same is expected this time around. That said, after his first term, markets moved on to focus on new policies under Biden. This serves as an important reminder that although being mindful of risks is always imperative, ultimately time remains the single greatest driver of long-term wealth creation. 

Macroeconomics in brief

Macroeconomics in brief