JPMorgan expects the recently imposed 30% tariff on South African exports to the United States to have only a modest impact on local markets, noting that investors have already priced in the risk of tougher trade measures.

South Africa, which received the highest tariff rate in Sub-Saharan Africa on 7 August 2025, has announced it will submit a revised trade proposal to Washington in a bid to secure more favourable terms.

While JPMorgan argues that the tariffs are weighing more heavily on the US economy than on many of its trading partners — a dynamic that has even helped support the rand — the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) has struck a more cautious tone. The chamber warned that the new levy could undermine sentiment through the remainder of the year and may carry ‘unintended and severe consequences’ for the domestic economy and longer-term trade relations with the US.

Despite these concerns, markets have so far shown resilience. The rand strengthened more than 1% to 17.57 against the dollar, helped by broader dollar weakness, while the JSE’s Top 40 index gained 0.60% on the day the tariffs took effect. Government bonds were little changed, with the benchmark 2035 yield steady at 9.67%.

JPMorgan added that a reduction in tariffs to 15–20% — in line with regional peers — could ease pressure on the economy and provide further support to equities, bonds and the currency. The bank also noted that dual-listed companies remain influenced by global factors rather than the tariff dispute, while platinum group metals producers continue to benefit from their strategic status.

US imports from South Africa

Bottom Line

Although the broader impact on local assets is expected to be minimal, there are specific industries, such as South Africa’s automotive manufacturing sector, likely to be under pressure. Beyond the direct effects, tariffs tend to weigh on sentiment, create uncertainty and strain international relations, all of which can add to market volatility. As we know, heightened volatility often entices investors into making poor short-term decisions. We therefore view this as an opportunity to remind investors to separate short-term noise from long-term drivers before making decisions that could affect long-term portfolio outcomes.

Macroeconomics in brief