July 2025
Adriaan Pask
Chief Investment Officer, PSG Wealth
The three major US indices climbed more than 0.80% on Friday, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 closing at fresh record highs. The rally was fuelled by stronger-than-expected labour market data, as non-farm payrolls increased by 147 000 in June 2025, well above the consensus forecast of 110 000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.10%, reinforcing confidence in the underlying strength of the US economy. Technology shares led the gains, with Nvidia rising 1.30% and Synopsys surging 4.20%, supported by solid AI-driven earnings momentum and the Biden administration’s decision to ease export restrictions on chip-design software to China.
In contrast, the South African rand weakened on Friday as traders weighed the implications of US President Donald Trump's sweeping tax cut and spending bill, alongside intensifying pressure on countries to finalise trade deals ahead of Washington’s 9 July deadline. By 12h51 GMT, the rand had slipped to 17.62 against the US dollar, down approximately 0.60% from Thursday’s close. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange's Top 40 index edged down 0.26%, while South Africa’s benchmark 2035 government bond was also slightly weaker, with the yield rising by 1 basis point to 9.745%.
In the UK, the FTSE 100 traded lower on Friday as renewed global trade tensions unsettled markets in the run-up to the looming tariff deadline. President Trump confirmed that his administration would begin issuing formal letters to trading partners, outlining unilateral tariff measures set to come into force on 1 August, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%. The prospect of steep tariffs should no agreements be reached by 9 July reignited concerns among investors.
Across the Eurozone, stocks also retreated, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 both down nearly 0.50% as attention turned back to the escalating trade standoff. The announcement from the White House regarding tariff notifications weighed on sentiment, while EU-US trade negotiations concluded in Washington without significant progress. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič remarked that while talks would continue, the aim remained to secure a broad and ambitious transatlantic trade deal—though no breakthrough had yet been achieved.
In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei 225 edged up by 0.06% to close at 39 811, while the broader Topix slipped 0.04% to 2 828 on Friday. Both indices ended the day little changed, as renewed apprehensions over US tariff plans kept investors on edge. Caution in Asian markets deepened after President Trump announced that formal trade letters outlining potential unilateral tariff rates would soon be issued.
Mainland Chinese equities were mixed, with the Shanghai Composite rising 0.32% to close at 3 472, while the Shenzhen Component declined by 0.25% to end at 10 509. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid persistent global trade uncertainty, and markets struggled for clear direction as the US administration’s latest trade stance added to the uncertainty.
In commodities markets, WTI crude oil futures slipped to $66.50 per barrel on Friday, extending losses from the previous session as traders weighed the likelihood of OPEC+ boosting oil output at its upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, gold rose towards $3 340 per ounce, poised for a weekly gain as persistent concerns over the US fiscal deficit and growing trade risks continued to enhance its safe-haven appeal.