February 2025
Adriaan Pask
Chief Investment Officer, PSG Wealth
South Africa's rand weakened on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that his proposed tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods would come into effect next week. At 14h29, the rand traded at 18.47 against the U.S. dollar, around 0.20% weaker than its previous close. The dollar was 0.60% stronger against a basket of currencies. Wichard Cilliers, head of market risk at TreasuryONE, noted that Trump's comments sparked a rally in the greenback as reported by Reuters. Trump stated that the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods would be implemented on 4 March as planned, citing ongoing drug imports from these countries.
Meanwhile, Wall Street experienced losses, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq losing early momentum on Thursday, slipping 0.10% and 0.50%, respectively, as the tech sector weighed on the broader market. Nvidia dropped 2.20% after reporting its smallest revenue beat in years, failing to impress investors. Other major tech stocks also declined, with Alphabet down 1.10%, Broadcom falling 2%, and Tesla slipping 0.80%. In contrast, the Dow Jones added around 200 points, buoyed by gains in financial stocks. JPMorgan rose 1.60%, and Visa advanced 2.20%.
In the UK, the FTSE 100 closed slightly higher on Thursday, outperforming other European markets, largely driven by a 15% surge in Rolls-Royce. The engine maker jumped after raising its guidance, reporting stronger-than-expected revenue in its civil aerospace and defence units, and announcing a £1 billion share buyback for 2025. Rolls-Royce also reinstated dividends and stated it would meet profit and cash flow targets two years ahead of schedule. However, WPP shares tumbled 15% after warning of flat or shrinking sales in 2025, as weakness in North America, the UK, and China offset growth in Western Europe.
Across Europe, markets mirrored the US, with both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 falling 0.50% on Thursday. Investor sentiment was dampened after Trump announced a forthcoming 25% tariff on imports from the European Union, including cars and other goods. The auto sector was particularly hard-hit, with shares in Volkswagen (-2.50%), BMW (-2%), Mercedes-Benz (-1.90%), Stellantis (-2.50%), and Porsche (-2.80%) all dropping. Adding to the cautious mood, Nvidia's quarterly results failed to impress, with the company delivering a mixed outlook.
In Asia, Japan saw positive movement, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 0.30% to close at 38 256, while the broader Topix Index gained 0.73% to 2 736 on Thursday, snapping a two-day losing streak and following gains in key Wall Street indexes. This was largely driven by hopes of a further one-month pause in tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, alongside Trump's proposal of 25% tariffs on European autos and other goods.
Chinese markets had a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite rising 0.23% to close at 3 388, while the Shenzhen Component slipped 0.26% to 10 928. Investors remained cautious ahead of next week’s "Two Sessions," where the Chinese government will outline its policy plans for the year. Key attention will be focused on details of fiscal stimulus measures aimed at boosting economic growth.
In commodities, it was a mixed day, with WTI crude oil futures rising towards $70 per barrel on Thursday, recovering slightly from a two-month low of $68.62 in the previous session as supply concerns resurfaced. Meanwhile, gold slipped below $2 900 per ounce, extending its pullback from Monday’s record high of $2 950, pressured by a stronger US dollar.