January 2025
Adriaan Pask
Chief Investment Officer, PSG Wealth
US stock futures retained gains on Monday following Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration. All three major stock indices rose about 0.50%, buoyed by Trump's executive orders aimed at increasing energy production, alongside reports that no new trade tariffs would be introduced immediately. Instead, the economic team would deliberate further on potential tariffs targeting China and North American trade partners.
The STOXX 50 gained 0.30% in Europe, while the STOXX 600 added 0.10% on Monday, rebounding from early losses. Markets found relief after reports from the Wall Street Journal indicated that Trump would direct federal agencies to review trade relations with China and North American neighbours but refrain from imposing new tariffs on his first day in office. On the data front, Germany's producer price index (PPI) rose 0.80% y/y in December 2024, marking the fastest increase since June 2023. Auto stocks were among the top performers, benefiting from the tariff-related developments.
The Hang Seng Index climbed 1.80% to close at 19 926 on Monday, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains and reaching its highest level since the start of 2025. The rally was supported by sector-wide advancements, fuelled by news of a conversation between US President-elect Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping addressing key bilateral issues. Additionally, Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng's meeting with Elon Musk and other US business leaders underscored Beijing's efforts to strengthen relations ahead of Trump's return to the White House. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.17% to 38 902, and the broader Topix Index increased 1.19% to 2 711, recovering from last week's losses as investors prepared for Trump’s inauguration and the potential impact of his policies.
In South Africa, the FTSE/JSE All Share Index began the week on a positive note, adding 0.04% on Monday as investors awaited Trump’s inauguration. The rand experienced a weaker session, trading at R18.51/$ by 22h50 local time. Local market participants are now looking forward to the release of this year’s first inflation report due on Wednesday.
WTI crude futures remained below $76.90 per barrel on Monday, as markets responded to US President Donald Trump's commitment to ramp up domestic crude production, including plans to invoke emergency powers to boost energy output immediately after assuming office. His decision to postpone tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico provided temporary relief, alleviating concerns over potential supply disruptions, particularly from Canada, the largest crude supplier to the US.