November 2024
Adriaan Pask
Chief Investment Officer, PSG Wealth
US stocks had a mixed showing on Tuesday as investors largely shrugged off geopolitical tensions, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin adjusted nuclear policies to lower the threshold for a nuclear response following Ukrainian missile strikes supported by the US. However, the dollar experienced a brief rally after markets largely brushed off these geopolitical concerns as Russia’s foreign minister emphasised their commitment to avoiding nuclear war, and the US stated there was no reason to adjust its nuclear stance. The S&P 500 rose by 0.40% for the day and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1%, while the Dow Jones dropped 120 points.
European stock fell on Tuesday, retreating from early gains as traders grew concerned about escalating tensions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Meanwhile, investors also monitored Donald Trump's political appointments and upcoming corporate earnings reports. The STOXX 50 dropped 0.90%, and the STOXX 600 slipped 0.40% for the day, closing at a three-month low and extending their losing streak to a third consecutive session.
Chinese stocks staged a recovery, with the Shanghai Composite rising 0.67% and the Shenzhen Component climbing 1.90% for the day. The rebound came amid growing expectations of additional stimulus measures from Beijing to boost economic growth. Investors also closely followed an investment summit in Hong Kong, where leaders from China’s top economic and financial institutions addressed developments in the financial sector. Additionally, Trading Economics reported that China’s securities regulator introduced new guidelines encouraging listed companies to improve shareholder returns through strategies like mergers and acquisitions, employee stock incentives, cash dividends, and share buybacks.
The local bourse trimmed early gains but managed to edge up to 84 527 points on Tuesday in volatile trading, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains. Traders kept an eye on President Trump’s upcoming cabinet appointments and weighed the implications of Russian President Vladimir Putin expanding the conditions for nuclear weapon use amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Domestically, attention shifts to the local inflation report due later today and the anticipated monetary policy decision the day after. Trading Economics added that the rand traded near 18.10 per USD, retreating from a one-week high of 17.95 reached on 18 November 2024 after S&P Global Ratings upgraded South Africa’s debt outlook from "stable" to "positive." However, the rand faced renewed pressure as the dollar strengthened following comments from Russia about its nuclear policy.
WTI crude oil futures remained above $69 per barrel, maintaining recent gains driven by heightened geopolitical risk amid escalations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, tensions eased after the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Iran's agreement to halt near-weapons-grade uranium enrichment, potentially reducing Middle East concerns. Furthermore, reports indicated that Hezbollah had accepted a US-brokered cease-fire proposal with Israel.
Gold extended its rally to approximately $2 640 per ounce on Tuesday, marking its second consecutive session of gains as heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The metal has now regained about 38% of the losses sustained in early November, which were driven by a stronger US dollar and diminished hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts amid robust economic data, according to Trading Economics. Despite this, most investors still anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting, though the likelihood has dipped to 58% from 62%. Market participants now await comments from Fed officials for further clarity on the monetary policy outlook.