16

July 2025

Wall Street retreats amid tariff tensions and Fed uncertainty

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Adriaan Pask

Chief Investment Officer, PSG Wealth

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US stocks ended mostly lower on Tuesday as investors weighed the potential impact of further tariffs and considered the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The S&P 500 slipped by 0.08% to close at 6 263.73 after briefly touching a fresh record earlier in the session, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.68%, shedding around 300 points. June’s inflation data showed headline figures rising to 2.70%, in line with expectations, although core inflation came in 2.90% slightly below forecast of 3%. Despite the softer core reading, markets still anticipate the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, with policymakers expected to remain cautious due to inflation risks linked to tariffs. White House officials confirmed that trade negotiations are ongoing with the European Union, Japan and South Korea – all of which have already been hit with steep import duties – fuelling concerns over potential price surges in August.

In corporate developments, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo saw sharp declines after releasing their second-quarter earnings, while Citigroup outperformed its peers on the back of stronger-than-expected results. Meanwhile, Nvidia shares rose 4% after the US eased certain export restrictions on China, helping lift the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which ended the day up at 0.62%. The US dollar index initially dipped but later rebounded to trade above 98.4 points.

European stocks reversed early gains to close mostly lower, as investors continued to weigh the potential fallout from impending US tariffs on European goods. The Eurozone’s benchmark STOXX 50 edged down by 0.30%, while the broader STOXX 600 finished 0.37% lower at 544.95. Financials were among the biggest decliners, with shares of Allianz, BBVA, and UniCredit slipping between 1% and 2%. Ericsson also retreated over 4%, despite surpassing earnings expectations, as concerns mounted over the possible effects of US trade measures on its operations. On the upside, ASML gained 2.70%, lifted by improved sentiment in the semiconductor space following news that the US would loosen export restrictions on Nvidia chips. 

Meanwhile, broader caution was evident across the region’s equity markets, with Germany’s DAX declining by 0.32% and London’s FTSE 100 slipping 0.61%, pulling back from record highs near the 9 000 mark. The FTSE was weighed down by homebuilders, following a disappointing trading update from Barratt Redrow, whose shares dropped 6.80%.

South Africa’s mining production edged up by 0.20% in May 2025, marking a modest recovery after a sharp 7.70% decline in April and bringing an end to six consecutive months of contraction. The rand firmed by 0.15% to trade at R17.89 against the US dollar and R20.77 against the euro at 17:21 SAST. On the equities front, the All Share Index (ALSI) rose by 0.23% to close at 97 019.36, with the Top 40 gaining 0.29%. In contrast, the JSE Resource 10 index slipped by 0.14%.

Asian markets closed mixed, with gains in Japan and Hong Kong offset by losses in mainland China. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose by 0.55% to finish at 39 678.02, supported by improved investor sentiment. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index climbed 1.45%, led by strength in Chinese-related stocks. However, the Shanghai Composite in mainland China slipped by 0.45%, closing at 3 503.89, as concerns over domestic economic conditions weighed on sentiment.

In the commodities market, gold slipped marginally by 0.02% to $3 340.17 per ounce, while silver declined by 1.46%. Platinum, on the other hand, rose by 2.47%. Brent crude futures continued to drift lower towards $69 a barrel, extending a 1.60% loss from the previous session. The decline followed growing scepticism among traders that US President Donald Trump’s recent pressure campaign on Russia would cause immediate disruptions to oil exports. President Trump announced increased military aid to Ukraine and warned of 100% tariffs if a peace deal is not reached within 50 days – raising the prospect of secondary sanctions on major Russian oil buyers such as India and China. However, the 50-day window was viewed by markets as reducing the risk of near-term supply disruptions.

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