March 2025
Adriaan Pask
Chief Investment Officer, PSG Wealth
The rand had its strongest performance in over six months, driven by upbeat local economic data and expectations of lower interest rates in the US. Although it lost some ground on Friday, the currency still gained around 2.50% for the week, marking its best showing since August. Meanwhile, the local stock market rose 0.35% to close the week on a positive note.
In the US, stocks experienced a volatile session on Friday as Wall Street rebounded from earlier losses amid uncertainty over President Trump’s trade policies. The S&P 500 climbed 0.60%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.70%, and the Dow Jones added 222 points. Markets reversed losses after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled that the central bank was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. However, trade tensions and policy uncertainty continued to cloud the economic outlook. Economic data was mixed, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 151,000 in February—falling short of expectations—while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.10%. Despite temporary tariff exemptions for Canada and Mexico, Trump’s trade policies contributed to market unease.
In Asia, the Hang Seng slipped 0.60% on Friday, ending a three-day winning streak. The decline came after Chinese trade data revealed an unexpected drop in imports for January and February, while exports lost momentum amid growing US tariff pressures. Despite Friday’s dip, the Hang Seng still gained 5.6% for the week, buoyed by optimism in the AI sector and indications that China will expand fiscal stimulus and maintain monetary easing to support economic recovery. Meanwhile, the Nikkei fell 2.17% on Friday, approaching its lowest levels since September as losses in US tech stocks weighed on sentiment.
European markets also closed lower on Friday, with the STOXX 50 dropping 0.90% and the STOXX 600 falling 0.50%, as investor confidence remained dampened by uncertainty over US trade policies. European Union leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine and committed to increasing military aid during an emergency meeting on Thursday. Over the week, the STOXX 50 remained largely unchanged, while the STOXX 600 declined by 0.80%.
Brent crude rose 1.30% to $70.4 per barrel on Friday after US President Trump warned of potential sanctions on Russia if it failed to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine. He stated that he was "strongly considering" imposing sanctions on Russian banks and tariffs on Russian goods in response to ongoing hostilities.