24
June 2025
Investment Ideas
Fundamental Research
Turkcell challenges MTN’s constitutional court appeal in Iran license dispute
Vaughan Henkel
Head of Securities Solutions, PSG Wealth
- Analyst Thesis
- We remain positive on MTN's earnings outlook due to the following reasons:
- MTN’s recent price increases in Nigeria, implemented to counter inflation and higher network expenses, are expected to be fully reflect from the Q2 FY2025 results onwards.
- MTN targets R7–8 billion in cost savings by 2026 through digitalisation and operational efficiencies which support margin expansion.
- Nigeria inflation is projected to decline to 22.1% by end-2025, easing operating costs and improving consumer affordability.
- Higher oil production should improve Nigeria’s fiscal and FX position, supporting MTN Nigeria’s operating outlook.
- The cedi’s appreciation supports earnings quality and enhances cash repatriation from Ghana.
- The $4.2 billion Turkcell lawsuit poses a notable risk, however, MTN’s underlying momentum and long-term growth drivers continue to support our investment case.