04

December 2024

Investment Ideas Fundamental Research

Investment Idea: MTN

Top line was in line with management expectations, but cost inflation was elevated in this period from various Opcos weighing in on margins which were impacted by currency volatility and conflict in Sudan.

  • Blended inflation of 13.9% in 3Q24 compared to 17.1% in 3Q23.
  • Group EBITDA increased by 3.4%. The EBITDA margin declined by 9 percentage points (pp) to 33.8%

The balance sheet remains robust. Group net debt/EBITDA at the holding company (Holdco) level held firm at 0.8x as of 30 September 2024. In 3Q24, group service revenue decreased by 13.4% compared to the same period last year.

  • The miss was impacted by MTN Nigeria as a result amidst increasing inflation and continued naira volatility.
  • MTN SA’s EBITDA grew by 2.6% in the quarter.

Our research supports a buy recommendation.