Executive Summary

Sibanye Stillwater recently released a trading statement for the FY25 interim results, expected on 28 August 2025. Below are the key financial and operational performance highlights:

Financial performance:

• HEPS: 180–200 SA cents expected (9.8–10.9 US cents), an increase of over 19x 1H24 (10 SA cents/0.5 US cents) — driven by higher SA gold profits and gold price.
• EPS loss: 120–133 SA cents (6.5–7.2 US cents), improved 55%–60% vs. 1H24 (259 SA cents/14 US cents loss).
• EPS loss due to US PGM and Keliber asset impairments (tax law changes, lower lithium prices).
• Other impacts: Gold hedge fair value losses; production issues raised inventories and lowered sales.

Production Update:

• PGM (SA & US): Consistent year-on-year; 804 252 4Eoz (SA, incl. Mimosa), 840 046 4Eoz (total). Underground production remains steady, surface production down 30% due to rainfall. The recent price rally may boost future earnings.
• SA Gold: Down 13% to 300 191oz (production challenges), but 2H25 recovery expected.
  Century Zinc: 51.3kt payable zinc, up 22%.
• US PGM: 141 124 2Eoz, in line with guidance. Recycling feed down 10%, 3E PGM oz sold down 14%. Reldan: 63 992oz gold, 932 712oz silver, 8 020oz platinum, 11 557oz palladium, 1.5 million lb copper.

Analyst thesis

 
Sibanye is a major PGM mining company, with additional exposure to gold and green energy metals. Near-term risks stem from high debt levels. The recent rise in PGM prices, driven by an increased demand for the precious metal, is well-timed as the company seeks to restore profitability and reduce leverage. While Sibanye will benefit from the PGM price recovery, we remain concerned about ongoing balance sheet concerns, especially if PGM prices do not hold up, and therefore maintain a sell recommendation. We therefore also prefer Valterra and Impala platinum as PGM peers.