03

February 2026

NextEra Energy Inc

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Pierre Muller

Head of Equity Solutions, PSG Wealth

Analyst Recommendation

Buy

 

Counter Share price Intrinsic value Upside/(Downside)
NEE-US $87 $96 10%

As at 27 January 2026

Executive Summary

Key highlights

In this report, we review the latest FY25 results for the year ended 31 December 2025.

Financial results at a glance:

  • Total group operating revenues increased from $24.8 billion in FY24 to $27.4 billion in FY25, a rise of 11% year-on-year. The uplift was driven mainly by strong top-line growth at FPL, where revenues rose on the back of customer additions, higher load, and continued expansion of the regulated rate base, alongside higher contributions
    from Energy Resources as more renewables and storage projects entered service and the contracted portfolio expanded.
  • Operating expenses increased to from $17.6 billion in FY24 to $19.4 billion, up 10% year-on-year, mainly reflecting FPL’s larger asset base and higher costs as Energy Resources’ project portfolio and financing activity expanded.
  • NextEra Energy delivered FY25 adjusted EPS of $3.71, up ~8% year-on-year (FY24: $3.43), exceeding the top end of guidance.
  • Development activity set another record, with 13.5 GW of new origination added in 2025, backlog at ~30 GW, and 7.2 GW placed into service, including progress on the Duane Arnold nuclear recommissioning under a long-term PPA.
  • The balance sheet remains robust, supported by strong, predictable cash flows from FPL’s regulated utility and Energy Resources contracted projects, even as debt levels remain elevated to fund growth and long-lived assets.
  • Outlook remains positive, with FPL’s regulated rate base expected to grow under a new four-year regulatory settlement that provides earnings and investment visibility, supported by the company’s broader capital investment plan extending through 2032, while Energy Resources focuses on converting its ~30 GW backlog and gas
    investments into contracted cash flows and EPS growth.

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on:

Our recommendation is based on:
Cost advantage: NextEra Energy’s leading scale in wind and solar generation and capital-efficient development model provides structural cost leadership, strong operating leverage, and high free-cash-flow visibility. Its longstanding utility footprint and renewable expertise create durable competitive barriers.

Resilient earnings driven by contracted cash flows: A large portion of earnings is supported by regulated utility operations and long-term power purchase agreements. This stable earnings base, combined with diversified renewable assets, delivers predictable margins and consistent cash generation across cycles.

Expansion into high-growth renewable segments within North America: NextEra continues to scale wind, solar, and energy storage platforms, capturing growth from data centres, industrial customers, and grid modernisation. A roughly 30-gigawatt backlog broadens its addressable market and extends the long-term growth runway. 

Room for long-term gains: The company’s visible cash flows, supportive policy tailwinds from IRA incentives, global decarbonisation trends, and potential lower interest rates indicate potential upside relative to its current valuation.

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