As at: 1 September 2026

Executive Summary

Key highlights

In this report, we review MTN’s 1H26 results released in August 2026:

Financial results at a glance:

• Revenue: Group services revenue grew by 17.5% in constant currency (cc) year-on-year, and by 9.7% on a reported basis, to R115.3 billion. Growth was led by Data revenue, which improved by 21% to R57.6 billion, while Fintech revenue grew by 13.3% to R14.9 billion, despite the suspension of airtime advance in Nigeria and operational disruptions within the Ugandan agent network.

• Profitability: EBITDA before once-off items rose 24.4% in cc and 20% on a reported basis to R56 billion. The reported EBITDA margin expanded to 47.1% in cc and to a record 47.6% on a reported basis. This operating leverage was supported by revenue growth exceeding cost growth, lower blended inflation, and broadly more stable FX rates across key markets.

• Geographic: EBITDA advanced by 38.7% in cc to R19.9 billion in Nigeria and by 40% in cc to R13.7 billion in Ghana. These increases reflect strong data demand, pricing actions, improving macroeconomic conditions.

• Operations: Group operating momentum was also reflected in a 6.7% increase in total subscribers to 318 million, a 9.1% rise in active data subscribers to 179 million, and growth of 22.8% in data traffic. The fintech ecosystem continued to scale, with monthly active MoMo users expanding by 12.1% to 70.8 million and the total transaction value rising to $330 billion for the reporting period.

• Capital allocation: Capital expenditure excluding leases was R19.7 billion, a capex intensity of 16.6%, demonstrating continued network investment. MTN announced a share repurchase programme of up to R6 billion. Targeted for completion in 2H26, the acquisition of IHS Holdings will see MTN sell down a 30% stake in IHS Nigeria to local investors as part of the conditional regulatory approvals for the transaction.

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on:

• Data and Fintech segments drive structural growth: MTN is increasingly capturing long-term growth in connectivity and financial inclusion across West and Central Africa. Data revenue prospects are supported by rising traffic and growth in active data subscribers, which now total 179 million. Fintech provides a second structural growth pillar, with MoMo monthly active users at 70.8 million and transaction value exceeding US$330 billion over the latest reporting period. The investment case centres on data, fixed and home broadband, enterprise digital services and fintech, which increase customer lifetime value and reduce reliance on the structurally declining voice revenue pool.

• Market recovery supporting earnings upside: Nigeria and Ghana are the main earnings catalysts, supported by strong data demand with improving macroeconomic and foreign exchange (FX) conditions. Continued normalisation in these markets could support further margin expansion and earnings growth. An any improvement in South African operations would provide an additional upside lever.

• Cash generation supports improved shareholder returns: MTN’s cash profile has improved, with free cash flow (FCF) conversion reaching 92.5% in the latest results. This allows capacity to continue funding network investment, execute strategic infrastructure transactions, and return capital to shareholders.

• Reported earnings remain exposed to non-operational shocks: Despite positive momentum in earnings, FX volatility, hyperinflation, geopolitical developments, and impairments can affect earnings and investor sentiment. The key valuation risk is that strong local currency operational growth does not consistently translate into predictable ZAR earnings and shareholder returns.