As at 1 April 2026

Executive Summary

Key highlights

In this report, we review the 4Q25 and FY25 results released in January 2026:

Financial results at a glance:

• Net interest income (NII): NII grew 3% in FY25 to $95.9bn (FY24: $93.1bn), with 4Q25 NII up 7% to $25.1bn (4Q24: $23.5bn), driven by higher revolving card balances, higher wholesale deposits and balance sheet growth, partly offset by lower rates and deposit margin compression.

• Non-interest revenue (NIR) and markets: FY25 NIR increased 2% to $89.7bn (FY24: $87.5bn), while 4Q25 NIR rose by 7% to $21.7bn (4Q24: $20.3bn), underpinned by stronger asset management fees, auto lease income, payments and investment banking fees. Markets revenue increased 19% to $35.8bn in FY25 (FY24: $30.0bn) and 17% in 4Q25 to $8.2bn (4Q24: $7.0bn), with broad-based strength in Fixed Income and Equities.

• Credit performance: FY25 credit costs increased from $10.7bn in FY24 to $14.2bn, with net charge-offs rising to $9.8bn (FY24: 8.6bn) and a net reserve build of $4.4bn (FY24: $2.0bn), including a $2.2bn build in 4Q25 for the Apple credit card forward-purchase commitment. In 4Q25 alone, credit costs were $4.7bn compared to 2.6bn in 4Q24, largely reflecting the Apple reserve rather than a broad deterioration in underlying portfolios.

• Capital, liquidity and returns: CET1 capital closed off 4Q25 at $288bn (4Q24: $276bn), with Standardised CET1 ratio of 14.5% (4Q24: 15.7%) and Advanced CET1 of 14.1% (4Q24: 15.8%), alongside firm LCR of 111% (4Q24: 113%) and cash and marketable securities rising to $1.5tn (4Q24: $1.4tn). FY25 ROTCE was 20% versus 22% in FY24, ROE 17% versus 18%, with average loans up 9% and deposits up 6% year on year, and an 82% LTM payout ratio via dividends and buybacks.

• Franchise momentum: In FY25, Consumer & Community Banking net income decreased to $18.2bn (FY24: $19.0bn) with ROE of 32% (FY24: 34%), supported by 7% YoY growth in active mobile customers to 61.7m and 7% growth in debit/credit sales volume in 4Q25. The Corporate & Investment Bank delivered a net income of $27.8bn for FY25 (FY24: $26.5bn) with ROE of 18% (unchanged), and Asset & Wealth Management increased to $6.5bn (FY24: $5.5bn) with ROE of 40% (FY24: 38%), driven by 18% AUM growth and 20% client asset growth.

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on:

• JPM operates across Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Banking, Commercial Banking and Asset & Wealth Management, providing diversified revenue streams across US retail, wholesale and global markets with selective international exposure. The portfolio generates a mix of recurring and market-sensitive income, captures higher-margin capital markets and advisory opportunities, and provides exposure to both secured and unsecured lending, supporting earnings durability across varying economic and rate environments.

• Under Jamie Dimon, JPM leverages digital banking and AI, supported by a large mobile user base and automation, to drive client acquisition, engagement and operating leverage. Rising digital penetration supports a durable cost and risk advantage over peers.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. delivers sector-leading profitability, consistently generating double-digit ROE/ROTCE alongside robust capital and liquidity. Strong capital generation supports sustained investment, dividends and buybacks, underpinned by scale and funding advantages.

• Solid fundamentals but valuation constrains upside: Despite strong leverage to the United States, the stock trades at a premium to peers, with its quality largely priced in. As sector valuations appear modestly stretched and earnings tailwinds normalise, risk-reward profile looks balanced, supporting a hold stance.