Executive Summary

Key highlights

In this report, we review the latest FY25 interim results for the six months that ended 30 June 2025.
Financial results at a glance:
•    Revenue increased 64% from $2.12 billion to $3.48 billion, driven by a 40% rise in realised gold price per ounce, 17% higher gold-equivalent ounces sold compared to H1 2024, and favourable FX movements in the operating countries.
•    Cost of sales before amortisation and depreciation increased by 11% from $1.08 billion to $1.2 billion, mainly due to increased production and inflationary pressure on commodity inputs and employee and contract costs.
•    Profit for the period increased 163% from $402 million to $1.06 billion, reflecting the margin expansion from higher gold prices and strong cost control, which filtered through to the bottom line. 
•    The interim declared dividend increased 133% to 700 SA cents, representing a payout of 34% of normalised earnings. (The dividend policy is to pay a dividend between 30% and 45% of normalised earnings). 
•    All-in sustaining costs (AISC) decreased by 4% from $1 745/oz to $1 682/oz reported in H1 2024. Management expects the AISC to further improve in H2 2025.
•    Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improved from 0.53x to 0.37x, with net debt decreasing by $599 million compared to FY24.
•    Salares Norte delivered continued progress in its ramp-up during the first half of 2025. Following output of 45koz gold equivalent in Q4 2024, production rose 13% quarter-on-quarter to 50koz eq in Q1 2025, then surged by a further 46% to reach 73koz eq in Q2 2025. 

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on:
•    Macroeconomic tailwinds have driven gold prices higher in 2025, underpinned by intensifying global economic uncertainty, disruptive trade policy shifts, surging geopolitical tensions, aggressive gold buying by central banks, weakening US dollar, and monetary easing as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. 
•    Gold Fields’ valuation looks stretched, with its EV/EBITDA multiple at 6.5x - around 38% above the 10-year average of 4.7x and near prior peak levels, potentially indicating that much of the bullish outlook is already reflected in the share price. 
•    Although the share price of Gold Fields seems extended, the price of gold could have further upside from:
o    Runaway debt levels in the US, stagflation, further central bank gold purchases seeking to diversify away from the US dollar, a prolonged weakening of the US dollar, escalating geopolitical tensions, and further disruption to global trade from tariffs.