As at: 28 September 2026

Executive Summary

Key highlights

In this report, we review GLN’s 1H26 results for the six months ended 30 June 2026 and assess the impact on our outlook:

Financial results at a glance:

• Group adjusted EBITDA grew by 86% to $10.1 billion (1H25: $5.4 billion), driven by materially higher realised prices across the portfolio. The primary drivers were copper, with average London Metal Exchange copper prices rising by 39% to $13 084 per ton, and coal, with hard coking coal gaining 28% and Newcastle energy coal 24%.

• Industrial adjusted EBITDA rose by 72% to $6.5 billion (1H25: $3.8 billion), driven by gains across both divisions. In metals and minerals mining, margins expanded to 52% for copper (1H25: 36%), while the divisional average grew to 36% (1H25: 24%). In energy and steelmaking coal, which also includes GLN’s oil assets, margins rose to 38% for steelmaking coal (1H25: 35%) and to 19% for energy coal (1H25: 18%). Group operating expenses grew by 3.4%, driven by a combination of store cost growth of 3.4% and growth in other operating costs of 3.6%.

• Marketing adjusted EBITDA expanded by 118% to $3.6 billion (1H25: $1.7 billion), a near-record result. Energy and steelmaking coal contributed $2.9 billion (1H25: $306 million), driven by the oil and gas business, as disruptions to liquefied natural gas, oil and shipping reshaped those markets. Metals and minerals delivered $1.3 billion (1H25: $1.6 billion).

• Copper production grew by 15% to 397 kt. Cobalt production declined by 46% to 10.2 kt as Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) export quotas constrained output. However, partial resumption of cobalt exports allowed the adjusted EBITDA from GLN’s African copper business to increase from $45 million to $1.0 billion, with its margin expanding from 5% to 46%. Zinc fell by 21% to 365.6 kt, reflecting the end of mining operations at Lady Loretta mine, the extraction of lower-grade zinc at Antamina mine and the sale of Kidd Creek mine on 1 June 2026.

• Net income attributable to equity holders was $4.4 billion, compared with a loss of $655 million in 1H25. Before significant items, net income was $3.7 billion, reflecting disposal gains, the recognition of deferred tax assets and impairments.

• Funds from operations rose by 158% to $8.1 billion. After funding $4.0 billion of net capital expenditure, $1.9 billion of non-RMI working capital and $1.1 billion of distributions, net debt declined to $10.2 billion.

• Net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved to 0.56x from 0.83x, with available committed liquidity of $14.0 billion.

•  The top-up special cash distribution of 8.5 US cents per share (approx. $1.0 billion) and the new $500 million buyback programme running to February 2027, brings total announced 2026 shareholder returns to $3.5 billion.

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on:

• Diversified base, copper-led earnings: Glencore (GLN) produces and markets more than 60 commodities from around 40 industrial assets across more than 30 countries. Copper is the largest and highest-margin earnings contributor, accounting for 47% of industrial adjusted EBITDA in 1H26 at a 52% mining margin. Zinc, nickel, cobalt, ferroalloys, and coal provide further diversification, helping to smooth the commodity cycle.

• Copper is the growth engine: Production is guided to rise 29% from 852 kilotonnes (kt) in FY25 to 1.1 megatonnes (Mt) in 2029, exceeding 1 Mt by end-2028 and reaching c. 1.6 Mt by 2035. Growth is brownfield and self-funded. It is expected to come from the ramp-up of African assets, where copper output rose 66% in 1H26, as well as the Alumbrera restart, Collahuasi leaching and Coroccohuayco projects; all expected to contribute from 2028, supporting GLN's expansion towards a first-quartile cost position.

• The world's largest commodities trader provides a natural hedge: Marketing trades third-party volumes alongside GLN's own volumes, earning on location, timing and quality spreads rather than price levels. The Marketing segment contributed $3.6 billion, or 36% of group adjusted EBITDA, in 1H26 using minimal capital. From FY23 to FY25, industrial adjusted EBITDA fell 25%, while marketing earnings fluctuated within a 15% range, stabilising group cash flow through the cycle.

• Re-rating from a coal-focused to copper-led business: Coal’s contribution has fallen from 35% of industrial adjusted EBITDA in FY25 to 30% in 1H26, and will keep shrinking as copper’s contribution grows 29% to 2029. Coal-exposed mining companies trade at persistent discounts, so the shift in mix is itself a re-rating catalyst, with cash flow from coal funding the copper build-out.