As at 13 November 2025

Executive Summary

• In this report, we review the latest FY25 results for the year ended 30 June 2025.
  Financial results at a glance:
  •    Eli Lilly reported 3Q25 revenue growth of 54% year-over-year to $17.6 billion, up from $11.4 billion in 3Q24, fuelled by extraordinary volume gains in Mounjaro (+109%) and Zepbound (+185%) as well as solid demand for Verzenio and other growth drivers. Mounjaro contributes 37% to revenue while Zepbound contributes 20%. 
  •    Volume growth reached 62%, an acceleration from last year, substantially offsetting a 10% decrease in realised prices driven by US rebates and discounts. International revenues surged 74% to $6.3 billion, demonstrating rapidly expanding global demand.
  •    Profitability improved markedly: 3Q25 reported EPS soared to $7.02 (non-GAAP), from $1.18 year-over-year, with net income rising from $970 million to $5.58 billion, driven by operating leverage and margin discipline amid heavy investment in R&D (+27%) and SG&A (+31%).
  •    Gross margin expanded to 83.6% (non-GAAP), up 1.4 percentage points from 3Q24, reflecting a beneficial shift in product mix toward high-value, innovative therapies.
  •    Key strategic progress was made in the pipeline, including four positive Phase 3 Orforglipron trials, FDA/EC approvals for Inluriyo, Omvoh, and Kisunla, strengthening the outlook of the business by broadening Lilly’s portfolio, driving future revenue growth, and reinforcing leadership across multiple high-value therapeutic areas.
  
  
  

Analyst thesis

• Our recommendation is based on:
  
  •    LLY leads the GLP-1 obesity and diabetes market, with Zepbound and Mounjaro driving international growth, strong market share gains, and expanding payer access. The imminent launch of Orforglipron (oral GLP-1) is expected to expand patient base and significantly accelerate growth, positioning LLY for a second wave of adoption.
  •    Advancing competitors (e.g., Novo Nordisk, Pfizer), which could pressure margins and erode long-term forecasts.
  •    Drug pricing reform efforts in the US/EU are a major overhang, potentially capping pricing power and limiting revenue from high-profile therapies, requiring close monitoring of reimbursement, access, and margin trends.
  •    Eli Lilly NTM P:E is currently expensive when compared to peers and to its own 10-year historical average P: E. The current share price, therefore, seems to be pricing in its better placement compared to peers for future growth, its large scale, deep drug pipeline, domestic manufacturing pivot, and leadership in obesity treatments.