As at 15 October 2025

Executive Summary

Key highlights

In this report, we look at GRT’s FY25 results and assess its implications on our current view.
Financial results at a glance:
• Revenue declined by 8% to US$51.3 billion due to lower realised prices from iron ore and coal, combined with the operational suspension of the Western Australia Nickel mine.
• Revenue contribution is split between copper (45%), iron ore (45%), and coal (10%), with other materials making up a small undisclosed percentage of the total revenue.
• Despite pricing pressure from iron ore and coal, profit from operations increased by 11% from US$17.5 billion in FY24 to US$19.5 billion, supported by record copper and iron ore output, improved coal productivity, and strong cost discipline.
• Underlying EBITDA reached US$26 billion, a decline of 11%, while net operating cash flow totalled US$18.7 billion, 10% lower than FY24.
• Copper production rose by 8% to 2.02 million tonnes, driven by higher grades and throughput at Escondida, record output at Spence, and strong performance in South Australia. Iron ore achieved a third consecutive production record at 263 million tonnes.
• Capital and exploration investment totalled US$9.8 billion, with an additional US$2.1 billion committed to the
Vicuña joint venture in Argentina and Chile, expanding BHP’s copper growth pipeline.
• The Jansen potash project was 68% complete, with first production target of mid-2027 and long-term operating costs expected at the low end of the global cost curve. However, JS1 estimated capex has been increased from US$5.7 billion to between US$7.0 billion and US$7.4 billion.
• A final dividend of 60 US cents per share was declared, bringing the full-year dividend to 110 US cents, representing a 55% payout of underlying profit, but 25% lower than the FY24 dividend. 

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on:

• BHP recorded a record consolidated copper production of 2.02 million tonnes in FY25, which exceeds FreeportMcMoRan’s reported 2024 consolidated copper production.
• Copper demand is poised to expand in the coming years with the global shift to electrification, renewables, and digital infrastructure, while the IEA flagged a potential copper supply shortfall by 2035. The expectation is for the price of copper to be well supported in a supply shortfall environment.
• BHP’s Vicuña joint venture is anticipated to start copper production around 2030, increasing overall production in a demand-rich environment, while benefiting from synergies that will lower costs.
• BHP’s low-cost operations and disciplined capital management position it to sustain a prolonged cyclical recovery in bulk commodity demand, like iron ore, which is very sensitive to the Chinese economy and construction industry.