Executive Summary

The latest financial information released by Sibanye Stillwater is the first-quarter operating update for the period ending 31 March 2025. Below are the key financial and operational performance highlights:

• Group adjusted EBITDA surged by 89% to R4.1 billion, reflecting a strong overall performance.
• Gold operations saw EBITDA climb 178% to R1.8 billion, despite a 15% drop in gold production, as higher gold prices offset lower output. However, gold operations remain costly, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) rising 17% from $2 039/oz in Q1 2024 to $2 392/oz in Q1 2025.
• South African platinum group metals (PGM) operations benefited from cost-cutting measures, boosting EBITDA by 74% to R2.5 billion, even as production slipped by 3% over the period.
• US PGM segment production fell 41% following the Stillwater West mine being placed on care and maintenance. This led to a negative EBITDA of R172 million for Q1 2025, compared to a R609 million profit in Q1 2024.
• Finance costs increased by 8% to R1.2 billion, despite a rate-cutting environment, as the company’s debt levels remain high.

Strategic developments:

• The Keliber lithium and GalliCam projects were awarded the Strategic Projects status by the European Commission, underscoring their importance to Europe’s critical raw materials supply. This designation helped Sibanye secure additional funding for these initiatives.
• Possible benefit of the S45X credit to the US PGM operations for FY25 to the amount of $60 million, with a further amount of $119 million for FY23 and FY24. Receipt expected in FY26 and FY27.

Analyst thesis

Sibanye is a major PGM mining company, with additional exposure to gold and green energy metals. Near-term risks stem from high debt levels. The recent rise in PGM prices, driven by an increase in demand for the precious metal, is well-timed as the company seeks to restore profitability and reduce leverage. While Sibanye will benefit from the PGM price recovery, the near-term outlook remains neutral given unpredictable demand for these metals and ongoing balance sheet concerns.