Analyst recommendation

 As at April 2025

Executive Summary

We maintain a buy recommendation on Redefine Properties (RDF) and leave our intrinsic value unchanged, with an upside of 21%. The recent increased likelihood of a US recession, tariff announcements along with concerns around the GNU has caused the share price to trade lower, however, the investment case remains unchanged given the lack of new information with regards to RDF since the last report.

We anticipate RDF’s distributable income per share to benefit from decreasing interest rates. This supported by distributable income per share management guidance for FY25 of between 50 to 53 cents per share when compared to FY24’s 50 cents per share. We anticipate similar levels as management’s guidance on distributable income per share growth. The company is expected to report interim results in mid-May, and we anticipate more colour on the outlook and assumptions around what the expectation of either a slowdown or continuation in rate cuts may mean for the DIPS guidance.

Analyst thesis

Valuation

Table 3: Valuation

We maintain our buy recommendation and leave our intrinsic value unchanged since there hasn’t been any stock specific news prompting a view change. We expect distributable income to grow further in FY26 driven by improvements in demand for space illustrated by positive rental reversions along with improving vacancies and positive impacts from interest rate cuts on finance costs. We left our scenario weights unchanged and still expect upside on a weighted basis considering recent market risks.

Source: FactSet